The COVID-19 pandemic is getting worse in Ontario, no matter where you live. New provincial modelling data shows that if the rate of growth continues at 3-percent we could see 2,500 cases a day and 6,500 cases per day at a 5-percent growth rate by mid-December.
Adalsteinn Brown the Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health says in the last three days the growth rate is at about 6-percent, “It’s fair to say that the five-percent is a current or maybe even a slightly optimistic scenario.” He says using the 5-percent rate of growth means Ontario will have more cases per capita than France and Germany and will be getting closer to the Netherlands. Most of those countries are now in some form of lockdown.
The data also shows Ontario is teetering dangerously close to having to suspend non-emergency surgeries as patients in ICU continues to climb. In any scenario the province provided on Thursday in 2 weeks ICU capacity will exceed 150, the number that officials say will result in surgeries being suspended. In six weeks, we may see 400 patients in intensive care in the next six weeks.
The number of people in hospital is up 61-percent in the last three weeks but the amount of time people spend in hospitals has declined.
The data also shows the number of people dying in long-term care homes is increasing each week with 71 deaths in the last seven days alone and 196 residents die since August 1st.
Officials say even though the majority of cases are in the GTHA, the number of cases in all other areas of the province is climbing with positivity rates climbing to 1.9-percent.