Provincial officials say Ontario’s ability to control the spread of COVID-19 is “precarious.”

New modelling data shows “hard” lockdowns, lasting between four to six weeks, could cut daily case counts to less than 1,000.

Under all scenarios, Ontario will see 300 intensive care unit beds filled within 10 days, double the 150-bed threshold where surgeries must be cancelled.

Under a worst-case-scenario, ICU occupancy could hit 1,500 beds by mid-January.

The data also shows that deaths due to COVID-19 will continue to increase, especially in long-term care.